HITTING THE CUT-OFF MAN (Part 1 in a Series)

A few weeks ago, in his wonderful blog The Soul of Baseball, Joe Posnanski wrote about Carl Crawford, left fielder for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Joe talked at length about Crawford's exceptional defense and what a shame it is that Gold Gloves are given to the three best defensive outfielders in each league—almost always centerfielders—and not to the best defender at each outfield position—one for right, one for left, one for center.

I agree.

Also, in that very same post, Joe asked the question "who is the better actor, Tom Cruise or Kevin Costner?" For some reason, this topic of discussion seemed to take precedence over Crawford's defense in most reader's comments. That is, until someone brought up Jim Rice and whether or not Rice should be in the Hall of Fame. Sorry Tom. Sorry Kevin.

It seems everyone has an opinion on whether or not Rice should be in the Hall. The topic was so popular at The Soul of Baseball that Joe Posnanski posted three additional articles about Rice's candidacy. After each one, the "yays" and "nays" weighed in with their own personal "pros" and "cons" until the whole thing felt like one big "cluster" and "fuck."

It's no longer enough to judge a player like Rice by his home runs, RBI's and batting average—or even his OPS+ (Adjusted On-base Plus Slugging, one of my favorites). Nowadays, you need to factor in his SecA (Secondary Average), EqA (Equivalent Average), MLE (Major League Equivalency), TPR (Total Player Rating), WPA (Win Probability Added), GPA (Gross Production Average), RCAA (Runs Created Above Average), VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), WARP3 (Wins Above Replacement Player: Version 3), and Win Shares. Unfortunately, they didn't offer Sabermetrics as a foreign language when I was in college. I spent 4 semesters mumbling through Spanish instead.

Anyway, that whole debate started me thinking about more traditional statistics and how important each one is in deciding if a player gets elected to the Hall of Fame. I wanted to know what statistics are best at predicting whether a player gets elected? Is there a magic number for each statistic that guarantees entrance to the hall? And at what point do we HIT THE CUT-OFF MAN? That is, how far down the list do we have to go before we find the poor guy who doesn't make the cut—who doesn't get elected to the Hall. And why not him?

Case in point: Career Wins. If you win 300 games as a pitcher you are 100% guaranteed election to the Hall of Fame. It's a done deal. Of the 23 pitchers in Major League History with at least 300 wins, 20 are already enshrined in the Hall of Fame. The only exceptions are Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, all of whom are all still active and not yet eligible. Of course, it's just a matter of time for them, too.

So who is the CUT-OFF MAN? Baseball-Reference ranks Bobby Mathews #24 on their list of most career wins. He won 297 games pitching before 1900, including 152 wins in the old National Association. The Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) doesn't recognize the National Association and #24 on their list is Tommy John. He finished his career with 288 wins.

Right below Tommy John at #25 (or #26, depending on who you believe) is Bert Blyleven with 287 wins. He is also not in the Hall of Fame. Next you have two Hall of Famers, Robin Roberts with 286 wins and Fergie Jenkins with 284. Tony Mullane, another guy who pitched before 1900, also has 284 wins but is not in the Hall. A third pitcher with 284 wins is Randy Johnson. He is still active, although injured, but almost certainly will get elected when he becomes eligible even if he never pitches again and never reaches the "magic 300 wins."

So, why Randy Johnson with 284 wins and not Tommy John with 288? Well, it's pretty obvious who is the more dominant pitcher. If you go just by Cy Young Awards, Johnson leads 5-0. And Tommy John hung around forever trying to get to 300 wins. He pitched 26 years to get his 288 wins. Johnson only needed 20 years to reach 284.

But Tommy John missed the entire 1975 season recovering from surgery—a surgery that now bears his name. Isn't it possible John might have won 12 games that year and reached the "magic 300"? Don't we need to factor that in somehow? And what about Candy Cummings? He only won 145 games in 6 seasons, all before 1900, and the only reason he's in the Hall is because he "supposedly" invented the curveball. Shouldn't Tommy John get credit for becoming the first pitcher to ever recover from Tommy John Surgery?

Here's your answers:

1. Sure, Tommy John might have won 12 games that year. Of course, he probably would have been in a lot of pain considering he needed Tommy John surgery. It's more likely that if John had pitched that year it would have ended his career.
2. No. It's not like he lost time fighting in a war. He hurt himself playing baseball. He's not the first guy to have his career suffer because of an injury. It happens.
3. Candy Cummings is a mistake. One of many mistakes the Hall of Fame has made over the years. No more, please.
4. Yes, John does deserve some credit. But then so does Dr. Jobe who performed the surgery. In fact, if you Google "Tommy John Surgery" "Hall of Fame," you'll find there are some people who think Dr. Jobe, not Tommy John, should be the one enshrined in Cooperstown, NY.

Tommy John does not belong in the Hall of Fame. However, I do think Bert Blyleven and his 287 wins belong in the Hall. But that's something for a later date. I'll cover Blyleven when I discuss Strikeouts and Shutouts. I'll also talk in more detail about Jim Rice when I discuss Extra-Base Hits and OPS+.

And, if I had to choose, I'll take Costner. "Field of Dreams" and "Bull Durham" beat "Jerry Maguire" and "All The Right Moves" every time.

Comments

[herb]

oh boy wouldnt it be great if they put a veterans committee to vote on who should be removed from the hall.I think Ozzie Smith will be the last guy to get into hall strickly on his defense.we dont put defense on a pedastool any more, which is too bad.The Wizard only hit 28 hr's.Do you think they would ever put a non pitcher in the hall with 28 taters?"That would have to be one mother fuckin charming pig!"

[mrsnydes]

great pulp fiction line. took me forever to place it. i had Samuel L figured out before i even came up with the movie. now you got me thinking about which position player has the fewest home runs in the hall. i know richie ashburn didn't hit many. i always remember he had his career high (7, i think) his final season. i'm sure the cut-off man for defense stats is not too far down the list.