HITTING THE CUT-OFF MAN (Part 2 in a Series)

In Part 1, I did a little bait and switch. I started off talking about Jim Rice and whether or not he belongs in the Hall of Fame, then finished by telling you why Tommy John does not. I never followed up on Rice and for that I apologize.

The only reason Tommy John's name came up is because I chose to discuss wins. And the only reason I chose to discuss wins is because 300 wins is such a magic number. If you win 300 games you will get elected to the Hall of Fame. It's a done deal. 100% guaranteed. And if you fall short, well, you can always ask Tommy John what the price of an adult admission ticket is to the Hall.*

The whole idea behind this series is to discover which statistics are best at predicting whether a player gets elected to the Hall of Fame. And is there a magic number for each statistic that basically guarantees entrance to the Hall. The other aspect of this series is to find at what point do we HIT THE CUT-OFF MAN for each statistic. That is, how far down the list do we have to go before we find the poor guy who doesn't make the cut—who doesn't get elected to the Hall. And why not him?

This time around I'll cover extra-base hits. I know hits or home runs would seem like a more natural starting point for discussing hitters. I chose extra-base hits for two reasons:

1. I wanted a stat that would allow me to shed some light on the Jim Rice question, "does he belong in the Hall of Fame?". And...

2. I believe the magic number for extra-base hits will soon be changing.

I'm not sure most people associate a magic number with extra-base hits. It doesn't get talked about as much as say 300 wins or 500 home runs or 3000 hits. It's a 1000 extra-base hits if you were wondering. And, as of right now, 1000 extra-base hits is almost as good at predicting a player's election to the Hall of Fame as those other numbers.

Currently, there are 28 players with 1000 extra base-hits or more. Of those 28, 20 are in the hall, 5 are still active, 1 is Pete Rose who is not eligible because he bet on baseball and 1 is Rafael Palmeiro who is retired but not yet eligible because the mandatory 5 year wait has not passed. In Palmeiro's case, it will be interesting to see how well he does in Hall of Fame voting since his suspension for taking Viagra steroids in 2005.

The only other player with 1000 extra-base hits who is not accounted for is Andre Dawson; he had 1039 extra-base hits in his career and ranks 22nd on the all-time list. I'm a bit surprised Dawson has yet to be elected. He won the Rookie of the Year Award in 1977, the MVP Award in 1987 and finished 2nd in MVP voting in 1981 and 1983. He was an 8-time All-Star and won 8 Gold Gloves. And he's one of only 3 players in Major League history to hit 400+ home runs and steal 300+ bases (the other two are Barry Bonds and Willie Mays). Also, Dawson was considered such a dangerous hitter in his prime that he was once intentionally walked 5 times during a 16-inning game, a Major League record.

So far, in 6 years of eligibility, Dawson has yet to receive more than 61% of the vote from the Baseball Writers Association. He actually dropped from 61% in 2006 to 56.7% this past year. I still think it's just a matter of time before he gets his plaque. Hopefully, 2008 will be his year as Dawson's former teammate Tim Raines is the only significant addition to this year's list of eligible players.

Once you drop below 1000 extra-base hits it starts to get interesting. There's no Tommy John on this list—nobody just below the magic number 1000 who you can easily argue against. In fact, of the next 14 guys on the list, 9 are in the hall, 3 are still active and 2 are retired but not yet eligible.

Later, I'll go into more detail on the players not yet eligible for the Hall. But for now, let's focus on HITTING THE CUT-OFF MAN, which we do when we get to #43, Dwight Evans (for the time being he's tied with Gary Sheffield who is still active). Evans' has 941 extra-base hits. And the best he ever did in Hall of Fame voting was about 10%. Later, he dropped off the eligible list altogether.

Just below Evans at #45 is Dave Parker with 940 extra-base hits. Parker has done better than Evans in Hall of Fame voting with a high of about 25%; he's still eligible but it's safe to say he probably won't get the necessary 75%. Without looking I would have said Parker was the better hitter and Evans was the better fielder. Actually, it's closer on both sides than you might think. I could write a whole other post comparing these two, but I think the real difference in Hall of Fame voting is Parker won an MVP and World Series ring and Evans did not. Plus, Evans always played second fiddle to Roger Clemens, Wade Boggs, Carlton Fisk, Carl Yastrzemski, Luis Tiant, Fred Lynn and, the one only, Jim Rice.

It's interesting Dwight Evans shows up as the cut-off man for extra-base hits, especially considering he and Jim Rice were teammates for Rice's entire career. Evans has more than 100 extra-base hits than Rice, who finished his career with 834. Of course, Evans played longer, 20 years to Rice's 16. But only because he started his Major League career at 20 and retired at 39. Rice got his first taste of the big leagues at 21 and was done at 36. If you look at Evans' and Rice's OPS+ (Adjusted On-Base plus Slugging) for their final seasons, you see Evans was 19% above league average and Rice was 30% below league average. In this case, the Rice was definitely overcooked.

I love Jim Rice and Dwight Evans. They are easily two of my favorite players of all-time. It's almost impossible to compare the two of them. They are similar but different. Rice was a great hitter who learned how to play a decent left field. Evans was a great right fielder who became a very good hitter. I would say Rice was more dominant but Evans was the better all-around player, although neither one had any speed.

I would love to see both get in the Hall. But I'm not sure either one is worthy. I think if Evans had played in the 40's or 50's he would be a shoe-in for the Hall, based just on his defense and cannon of an arm. But like my buddy David says, "we don't put defense on a pedestal any more." In Rice's case, he was the most dominant hitter in the American League over a period of 12 years, 1975 - 1986. But then he tanked. And he tanked big time.

It's a terrible thing to say, but if Rice had suffered from Glaucoma like Kirby Puckett and retired after the 1986 season, he would probably already be in the Hall. Of course, Puckett also lead his team to two World Championships and always had a smile on his face for the media. Unfortunately, Rice failed at the former and never bothered with the latter. The one thing I think Rice has going for him is he dominated before steroids started inflating the numbers. Still, in the end, I don't think it's going to happen for him.

It will be interesting to see how the Baseball Writers Association treats players from the past decade once they become eligible for the Hall of Fame. Here's a rundown of some of those players, guys who rank above Evans on the extra-base hits list and are not yet eligible for the Hall:

Barry Bonds has 1440 extra-base hits and is #2 on the list. He is still active.

Rafael Palmeiro has 1192 extra-base hits and is #6 on the list. He retired after the 2005 season and will be on the ballot in 2011.

Ken Griffey Jr has 1102 extra-base hits and is #15 on the list. He is still active.

Sammy Sosa has 1031 extra-base hits and is #23 on the list. He is still active.

Craig Biggio has 1011 extra-base hits and is tied for #25 on the list (with Rogers Hornsby). He is still active.

Frank Thomas has 1004 extra-base hits and is #28 on the list. He is still active.

Luis Gonzalez has 981 extra-base hits and is #31 on the list. He is still active.

Manny Ramirez has 977 extra-base hits and is #32 on the list. He is still active.

Jeff Bagwell has 969 extra-base hits and is #34 on the list. He retired in 2005 and will be on the ballot in 2011.

Fred McGriff has 958 extra-base hits and is #37 on the list. He retired in 2004 and will be on the ballot in 2010.

Jeff Kent has 945 extra-base hits and is #42 on the list. He is still active.

I'm guessing Bonds will get in eventually. His "I didn't know I was on steroids" story is a crock-of-shit as far as I'm concerned. But he's still one of the top 3 or 4 players of all-time. If he doesn't get it in, well, good. Palmeiro will have a much tougher time. Not only did he got caught and suspended for steroids, he also lied in front of Congress. Sosa never got caught with steroids. He'll get in eventually, too. Griffey Jr, Biggio and Thomas will all get in, probably on the first ballot. Manny and Bagwell also will get in, probably first ballot as well. Fred McGriff had a solid a career. As solid a career as a guy can have. He tried to hang on to get to 500 home runs. But it didn't happen. And I don't think getting elected to the Hall of Fame will happen for him either.

The only players left are Luis Gonzalez and Jeff Kent, both of whom are still active and playing for the Dodgers. Kent is having a decent season at 39 and he plays in a pitcher's park. Who knows how much longer he can be productive but he could very easily get to 1000 extra-base hits. Another season and he's there. He's also a second baseman and one of the more productive second baseman in history. It's a tough call. I wouldn't vote for him but I think he gets in eventually.

That leaves us with Luis Gonzalez. He's also 39 and plays in the same park as Kent. But he's not having the same kind of season as Kent. Plus, he's a corner outfielder and that makes the comparison with Kent even more lop-sided. Gonzalez is only 19 extra-base hits away from 1000. He won't make it this year but he says he wants to play 2 more years. I think the Dodgers should try to move him. Too much young talent on that team to keep Gonzalez as a starter. Honestly, I think he's close to being done. We shall see.

Overall, it's hard to make a case for Luis Gonzalez for the Hall of Fame. He's a 5-time All-Star, a 1-time Silver Slugger Award winner and he lead the National League in hits once. He also won a World Series ring and knocked in the winning run in one of the most exciting World Series of all time. But Gonzalez only finished in the top ten in MVP voting one time. Compare that with Kent who won an MVP and finished in the top ten 3 other times (McGriff finished in the top ten 6 times).

According to Baseball-Reference, the most comparable player to Luis Gonzalez is Dave Parker. Number 4 on that list is Dwight Evans. Number 8 is Jim Rice. In my opinion, Gonzalez pales in comparison with all three players.

When it comes to HITTING THE CUT-OFF MAN for extra-base hits, I think the torch will pass from Dwight Evans to Fred McGriff to Luis Gonzalez. I just hope Gonzalez doesn't make it to 1000. If he does, we'll have to find ourselves a new magic number.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

* In case you were wondering, admission to the Hall of Fame is $14.50 for adults, $9.50 for senior citizens, $5.00 for kids 7-12 and free for kids under 7. It's a huge, huge bargain.

Comments

[tom stone]

A very interesting post on a fun topic!

[herb]

If you become a member to the hall for 40$ you get free admission for a year and other wonderful perks .Nice job Mr.Snydes.Dewey is very under rated.He put fear into base runners thinking about taking the extra base.Im surprised Dawson doesnt get more action by the voters.He had a hellava career.He was complete ball player.If he didnt blow out his knees he would of been a shoo in.Maybe Rice gets more fanfare cuz he played his whole career in Boston and the Hawk was on a buch of teams.

[theSnydes3000]

thanks tom. and thanks for talking it up on your site. i'd like to do something on fielding next but it's a tough one. even gold gloves you get jim kaat right out of the gate with 16. i'll try to dig deeper and see what i can find.

[theSnydes3000]

rice definitely played on better teams. and got more pub. dawson only played on 7 teams in 21 seasons that had records over .500. rice only played on 2 teams under .500 and one team that finished at .500. dawson and rice both performed poorly in the years they made the post season. rice had a good '86 world series but had no home runs. evans had a good series in '86, too. but he hit poorly in every other post season series.

you made a good point the other day about this year's hall of fame voting and what would happen if nobody gets elected. a lot of guys could cancel each other out. what happens to cooperstown with no induction ceremony?